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2023 season — Model vs AP

Full weekly rankings with the current late-tuned config. Side-by-side Model Top 25 and AP Top 25 for every week with available poll data.

Final #1 match
Final model #1
Michigan Wolverines
Final AP #1
Michigan Wolverines

Download: summary.json · weekly_agreement.csv

Preseason (Coaches Poll)

Model #1 Georgia Bulldogs AP #1 Georgia Bulldogs #1 match 0 games through this point

Model Top 25

RkTeamRecScoreAP
1Georgia Bulldogs0-0100.01
2Michigan Wolverines0-099.02
3Alabama Crimson Tide0-098.03
4Ohio State Buckeyes0-097.04
5LSU Tigers0-096.05
6USC Trojans0-095.06
7Penn State Nittany Lions0-094.07
8Florida State Seminoles0-093.08
9Clemson Tigers0-092.09
10Tennessee Volunteers0-091.010
11Washington Huskies0-090.011
12Texas Longhorns0-089.012
13Notre Dame Fighting Irish0-088.013
14Utah Utes0-087.014
15Oregon Ducks0-086.015
16TCU Horned Frogs0-085.016
17Kansas State Wildcats0-084.017
18Oregon State Beavers0-083.018
19Oklahoma Sooners0-082.019
20North Carolina Tar Heels0-081.020
21Wisconsin Badgers0-080.021
22Ole Miss Rebels0-079.022
23Tulane Green Wave0-078.023
24Texas Tech Red Raiders0-077.024
25Texas A&M Aggies0-076.025

AFCA Coaches Poll

RkTeamRecModel
1Georgia Bulldogs0-01
2Michigan Wolverines0-02
3Alabama Crimson Tide0-03
4Ohio State Buckeyes0-04
5LSU Tigers0-05
6USC Trojans0-06
7Penn State Nittany Lions0-07
8Florida State Seminoles0-08
9Clemson Tigers0-09
10Tennessee Volunteers0-010
11Washington Huskies0-011
12Texas Longhorns0-012
13Notre Dame Fighting Irish0-013
14Utah Utes0-014
15Oregon Ducks0-015
16TCU Horned Frogs0-016
17Kansas State Wildcats0-017
18Oregon State Beavers0-018
19Oklahoma Sooners0-019
20North Carolina Tar Heels0-020
21Wisconsin Badgers0-021
22Ole Miss Rebels0-022
23Tulane Green Wave0-023
24Texas Tech Red Raiders0-024
25Texas A&M Aggies0-025

Week 1

Model #1 Auburn Tigers AP #1 Georgia Bulldogs #1 differ 94 games through this point

Model Top 25

RkTeamRecScoreAP
1Auburn Tigers1-088.71—
2USC Trojans2-079.526
3SMU Mustangs1-078.23—
4Notre Dame Fighting Irish2-073.3913
5Washington State Cougars1-072.38—
6Ohio State Buckeyes1-072.383
7California Golden Bears1-071.28—
8NC State Wolfpack1-071.19—
9Colorado Buffaloes1-070.93—
10Florida State Seminoles1-070.738
11Jacksonville State Gamecocks2-070.01—
12North Carolina Tar Heels1-069.8621
13Texas State Bobcats1-069.14—
14Tennessee Volunteers1-068.412
15Louisville Cardinals1-068.06—
16Utah Utes1-068.0114
17Northern Illinois Huskies1-067.91—
18Fresno State Bulldogs1-067.67—
19UCLA Bruins1-066.99—
20Stanford Cardinal1-066.53—
21Penn State Nittany Lions1-066.357
22Oregon State Beavers1-066.1618
23Duke Blue Devils1-066.14—
24Washington Huskies1-065.7310
25Virginia Tech Hokies1-065.21—

AP Top 25

RkTeamRecModel
1Georgia Bulldogs0-055
2Michigan Wolverines0-029
3Ohio State Buckeyes0-06
4Alabama Crimson Tide0-039
5LSU Tigers0-097
6USC Trojans0-02
7Penn State Nittany Lions0-021
8Florida State Seminoles0-010
9Clemson Tigers0-0101
10Washington Huskies0-024
11Texas Longhorns0-030
12Tennessee Volunteers0-014
13Notre Dame Fighting Irish0-04
14Utah Utes0-016
15Oregon Ducks0-045
16Kansas State Wildcats0-060
17TCU Horned Frogs0-096
18Oregon State Beavers0-022
19Wisconsin Badgers0-031
20Oklahoma Sooners0-050
21North Carolina Tar Heels0-012
22Ole Miss Rebels0-051
23Texas A&M Aggies0-037
24Tulane Green Wave0-035
25Iowa Hawkeyes0-038
Largest disagreements (AP teams):
  • LSU Tigers — model #97 vs AP #5 (Δ +92; model lower)
  • Clemson Tigers — model #101 vs AP #9 (Δ +92; model lower)
  • TCU Horned Frogs — model #96 vs AP #17 (Δ +79; model lower)
  • Georgia Bulldogs — model #55 vs AP #1 (Δ +54; model lower)
  • Kansas State Wildcats — model #60 vs AP #16 (Δ +44; model lower)

Week 2

Model #1 UCLA Bruins AP #1 Georgia Bulldogs #1 differ 179 games through this point

Model Top 25

RkTeamRecScoreAP
1UCLA Bruins2-086.9—
2Auburn Tigers2-084.42—
3Texas Longhorns2-084.2111
4USC Trojans3-081.896
5Notre Dame Fighting Irish3-081.5210
6Miami Hurricanes2-080.94—
7Washington State Cougars2-077.38—
8Rutgers Scarlet Knights2-076.0—
9Florida State Seminoles2-075.214
10Colorado Buffaloes2-074.8722
11Iowa Hawkeyes2-074.21—
12Utah Utes2-072.412
13Oklahoma Sooners2-071.3418
14North Carolina Tar Heels2-070.8217
15Ole Miss Rebels2-070.6720
16Washington Huskies2-070.328
17Fresno State Bulldogs2-069.68—
18Oregon Ducks2-067.1613
19Cincinnati Bearcats2-066.14—
20Oregon State Beavers2-065.8516
21Ohio State Buckeyes2-065.695
22Michigan Wolverines2-065.662
23Penn State Nittany Lions2-064.767
24Kansas Jayhawks2-064.31—
25Louisville Cardinals2-063.48—

AP Top 25

RkTeamRecModel
1Georgia Bulldogs1-045
2Michigan Wolverines1-022
3Alabama Crimson Tide1-061
4Florida State Seminoles1-09
5Ohio State Buckeyes1-021
6USC Trojans2-04
7Penn State Nittany Lions1-023
8Washington Huskies1-016
9Tennessee Volunteers1-040
10Notre Dame Fighting Irish2-05
11Texas Longhorns1-03
12Utah Utes1-012
13Oregon Ducks1-018
14LSU Tigers0-177
15Kansas State Wildcats1-034
16Oregon State Beavers1-020
17North Carolina Tar Heels1-014
18Oklahoma Sooners1-013
19Wisconsin Badgers1-062
20Ole Miss Rebels1-015
21Duke Blue Devils1-028
22Colorado Buffaloes1-010
23Texas A&M Aggies1-041
24Tulane Green Wave1-067
25Clemson Tigers0-186
Largest disagreements (AP teams):
  • LSU Tigers — model #77 vs AP #14 (Δ +63; model lower)
  • Clemson Tigers — model #86 vs AP #25 (Δ +61; model lower)
  • Alabama Crimson Tide — model #61 vs AP #3 (Δ +58; model lower)
  • Georgia Bulldogs — model #45 vs AP #1 (Δ +44; model lower)
  • Wisconsin Badgers — model #62 vs AP #19 (Δ +43; model lower)

Week 3

Model #1 Texas Longhorns AP #1 Georgia Bulldogs #1 differ 254 games through this point

Model Top 25

RkTeamRecScoreAP
1Texas Longhorns3-086.764
2Florida State Seminoles3-084.123
3Colorado Buffaloes3-080.7918
4Miami Hurricanes3-079.7522
5Ole Miss Rebels3-079.6817
6North Carolina Tar Heels3-078.8220
7Washington Huskies3-076.68
8Notre Dame Fighting Irish4-075.69
9Rutgers Scarlet Knights3-074.49—
10Penn State Nittany Lions3-074.327
11UCLA Bruins3-074.1724
12Auburn Tigers3-073.81—
13Oklahoma Sooners3-072.7719
14Washington State Cougars3-072.4323
15Duke Blue Devils3-071.1221
16Utah Utes3-069.7512
17Syracuse Orange3-069.24—
18Ohio State Buckeyes3-068.946
19Michigan Wolverines3-067.882
20Iowa Hawkeyes3-066.8725
21Oregon Ducks3-066.4713
22Oregon State Beavers3-066.416
23USC Trojans3-065.685
24Wake Forest Demon Deacons3-065.64—
25Louisville Cardinals3-064.84—

AP Top 25

RkTeamRecModel
1Georgia Bulldogs2-031
2Michigan Wolverines2-019
3Florida State Seminoles2-02
4Texas Longhorns2-01
5USC Trojans3-023
6Ohio State Buckeyes2-018
7Penn State Nittany Lions2-010
8Washington Huskies2-07
9Notre Dame Fighting Irish3-08
10Alabama Crimson Tide1-135
11Tennessee Volunteers2-060
12Utah Utes2-016
13Oregon Ducks2-021
14LSU Tigers1-128
15Kansas State Wildcats2-053
16Oregon State Beavers2-022
17Ole Miss Rebels2-05
18Colorado Buffaloes2-03
19Oklahoma Sooners2-013
20North Carolina Tar Heels2-06
21Duke Blue Devils2-015
22Miami Hurricanes2-04
23Washington State Cougars2-014
24UCLA Bruins2-011
25Iowa Hawkeyes2-020
Largest disagreements (AP teams):
  • Tennessee Volunteers — model #60 vs AP #11 (Δ +49; model lower)
  • Kansas State Wildcats — model #53 vs AP #15 (Δ +38; model lower)
  • Georgia Bulldogs — model #31 vs AP #1 (Δ +30; model lower)
  • Alabama Crimson Tide — model #35 vs AP #10 (Δ +25; model lower)
  • USC Trojans — model #23 vs AP #5 (Δ +18; model lower)

Week 4

Model #1 Texas Longhorns AP #1 Georgia Bulldogs #1 differ 321 games through this point

Model Top 25

RkTeamRecScoreAP
1Texas Longhorns4-087.463
2Miami Hurricanes4-081.9520
3Florida State Seminoles4-081.04
4Oregon Ducks4-080.3710
5Washington State Cougars4-080.0821
6Penn State Nittany Lions4-079.537
7Ohio State Buckeyes4-079.426
8Washington Huskies4-078.938
9Oklahoma Sooners4-076.2316
10Michigan Wolverines4-076.152
11North Carolina Tar Heels4-075.8417
12Alabama Crimson Tide3-175.4213
13Utah Utes4-073.0711
14Colorado Buffaloes3-170.919
15Texas A&M Aggies3-170.37—
16Duke Blue Devils4-069.9718
17Missouri Tigers4-069.24—
18Wisconsin Badgers3-168.27—
19Louisville Cardinals4-068.05—
20Syracuse Orange4-067.36—
21USC Trojans4-067.315
22Notre Dame Fighting Irish4-167.299
23Ole Miss Rebels3-167.215
24Kansas Jayhawks4-066.08—
25Maryland Terrapins4-065.49—

AP Top 25

RkTeamRecModel
1Georgia Bulldogs3-027
2Michigan Wolverines3-010
3Texas Longhorns3-01
4Florida State Seminoles3-03
5USC Trojans3-021
6Ohio State Buckeyes3-07
7Penn State Nittany Lions3-06
8Washington Huskies3-08
9Notre Dame Fighting Irish4-022
10Oregon Ducks3-04
11Utah Utes3-013
12LSU Tigers2-129
13Alabama Crimson Tide2-112
14Oregon State Beavers3-037
15Ole Miss Rebels3-023
16Oklahoma Sooners3-09
17North Carolina Tar Heels3-011
18Duke Blue Devils3-016
19Colorado Buffaloes3-014
20Miami Hurricanes3-02
21Washington State Cougars3-05
22UCLA Bruins3-032
23Tennessee Volunteers2-145
24Iowa Hawkeyes3-040
25Florida Gators2-135
Largest disagreements (AP teams):
  • Georgia Bulldogs — model #27 vs AP #1 (Δ +26; model lower)
  • Oregon State Beavers — model #37 vs AP #14 (Δ +23; model lower)
  • Tennessee Volunteers — model #45 vs AP #23 (Δ +22; model lower)
  • Miami Hurricanes — model #2 vs AP #20 (Δ -18; model higher)
  • LSU Tigers — model #29 vs AP #12 (Δ +17; model lower)

Week 5

Model #1 Texas Longhorns AP #1 Georgia Bulldogs #1 differ 380 games through this point

Model Top 25

RkTeamRecScoreAP
1Texas Longhorns5-093.563
2Penn State Nittany Lions5-083.396
3Michigan Wolverines5-081.512
4Washington Huskies5-081.347
5Oklahoma Sooners5-078.8714
6Ohio State Buckeyes4-078.824
7Alabama Crimson Tide4-178.8112
8Washington State Cougars4-078.2316
9Miami Hurricanes4-076.6218
10Florida State Seminoles4-076.415
11Oregon Ducks5-076.29
12Notre Dame Fighting Irish5-173.7411
13USC Trojans5-073.028
14Missouri Tigers5-070.8323
15North Carolina Tar Heels4-070.2915
16Oregon State Beavers4-170.1819
17Louisville Cardinals5-069.25—
18Texas A&M Aggies4-168.76—
19Ole Miss Rebels4-168.1620
20Wisconsin Badgers3-167.73—
21Georgia Bulldogs5-067.421
22Duke Blue Devils4-167.1817
23Maryland Terrapins5-066.79—
24Kentucky Wildcats5-066.38—
25Utah Utes4-164.9210

AP Top 25

RkTeamRecModel
1Georgia Bulldogs4-021
2Michigan Wolverines4-03
3Texas Longhorns4-01
4Ohio State Buckeyes4-06
5Florida State Seminoles4-010
6Penn State Nittany Lions4-02
7Washington Huskies4-04
8USC Trojans4-013
9Oregon Ducks4-011
10Utah Utes4-025
11Notre Dame Fighting Irish4-112
12Alabama Crimson Tide3-17
13LSU Tigers3-143
14Oklahoma Sooners4-05
15North Carolina Tar Heels4-015
16Washington State Cougars4-08
17Duke Blue Devils4-022
18Miami Hurricanes4-09
19Oregon State Beavers3-116
20Ole Miss Rebels3-119
21Tennessee Volunteers3-138
22Florida Gators3-145
23Missouri Tigers4-014
24Kansas Jayhawks4-029
25Fresno State Bulldogs4-035
Largest disagreements (AP teams):
  • LSU Tigers — model #43 vs AP #13 (Δ +30; model lower)
  • Florida Gators — model #45 vs AP #22 (Δ +23; model lower)
  • Georgia Bulldogs — model #21 vs AP #1 (Δ +20; model lower)
  • Tennessee Volunteers — model #38 vs AP #21 (Δ +17; model lower)
  • Utah Utes — model #25 vs AP #10 (Δ +15; model lower)

Week 6

Model #1 Oklahoma Sooners AP #1 Georgia Bulldogs #1 differ 431 games through this point

Model Top 25

RkTeamRecScoreAP
1Oklahoma Sooners6-090.3112
2Texas Longhorns5-187.843
3Louisville Cardinals6-084.2225
4Michigan Wolverines6-084.082
5Alabama Crimson Tide5-182.7911
6Florida State Seminoles5-081.335
7Ohio State Buckeyes5-080.374
8Penn State Nittany Lions5-078.936
9Washington State Cougars4-175.4213
10North Carolina Tar Heels5-074.6814
11Washington Huskies5-074.547
12Georgia Bulldogs6-073.871
13Ole Miss Rebels5-173.6916
14USC Trojans6-073.049
15Oregon Ducks5-073.028
16Notre Dame Fighting Irish5-271.710
17Oregon State Beavers5-170.3515
18Utah Utes4-167.9518
19Wisconsin Badgers4-167.72—
20Miami Hurricanes4-167.5417
21LSU Tigers4-266.8423
22UCLA Bruins4-166.49—
23Duke Blue Devils4-165.2419
24James Madison Dukes5-064.0—
25Iowa Hawkeyes5-163.77—

AP Top 25

RkTeamRecModel
1Georgia Bulldogs5-012
2Michigan Wolverines5-04
3Texas Longhorns5-02
4Ohio State Buckeyes4-07
5Florida State Seminoles4-06
6Penn State Nittany Lions5-08
7Washington Huskies5-011
8Oregon Ducks5-015
9USC Trojans5-014
10Notre Dame Fighting Irish5-116
11Alabama Crimson Tide4-15
12Oklahoma Sooners5-01
13Washington State Cougars4-09
14North Carolina Tar Heels4-010
15Oregon State Beavers4-117
16Ole Miss Rebels4-113
17Miami Hurricanes4-020
18Utah Utes4-118
19Duke Blue Devils4-123
20Kentucky Wildcats5-032
21Missouri Tigers5-030
22Tennessee Volunteers4-139
23LSU Tigers3-221
24Fresno State Bulldogs5-049
25Louisville Cardinals5-03
Largest disagreements (AP teams):
  • Fresno State Bulldogs — model #49 vs AP #24 (Δ +25; model lower)
  • Louisville Cardinals — model #3 vs AP #25 (Δ -22; model higher)
  • Tennessee Volunteers — model #39 vs AP #22 (Δ +17; model lower)
  • Kentucky Wildcats — model #32 vs AP #20 (Δ +12; model lower)
  • Georgia Bulldogs — model #12 vs AP #1 (Δ +11; model lower)

Week 7

Model #1 Oklahoma Sooners AP #1 Georgia Bulldogs #1 differ 486 games through this point

Model Top 25

RkTeamRecScoreAP
1Oklahoma Sooners6-085.975
2Michigan Wolverines7-084.02
3Florida State Seminoles6-083.964
4Washington Huskies6-083.567
5Ohio State Buckeyes6-083.223
6Texas Longhorns5-183.079
7Penn State Nittany Lions6-080.776
8Alabama Crimson Tide6-179.4711
9Notre Dame Fighting Irish6-276.8821
10North Carolina Tar Heels6-076.7412
11Louisville Cardinals6-175.114
12Oregon State Beavers6-173.9715
13Ole Miss Rebels5-173.4913
14Georgia Bulldogs7-071.881
15Iowa Hawkeyes6-171.46—
16LSU Tigers5-270.5822
17Oregon Ducks5-170.558
18USC Trojans6-170.5210
19James Madison Dukes6-069.36—
20Missouri Tigers6-168.61—
21Utah Utes5-167.3716
22Liberty Flames6-067.17—
23Duke Blue Devils5-166.4917
24Arizona Wildcats4-364.46—
25Kansas State Wildcats4-263.59—

AP Top 25

RkTeamRecModel
1Georgia Bulldogs6-014
2Michigan Wolverines6-02
3Ohio State Buckeyes5-05
4Florida State Seminoles5-03
5Oklahoma Sooners6-01
6Penn State Nittany Lions5-07
7Washington Huskies5-04
8Oregon Ducks5-017
9Texas Longhorns5-16
10USC Trojans6-018
11Alabama Crimson Tide5-18
12North Carolina Tar Heels5-010
13Ole Miss Rebels5-113
14Louisville Cardinals6-011
15Oregon State Beavers5-112
16Utah Utes4-121
17Duke Blue Devils4-123
18UCLA Bruins4-133
19Washington State Cougars4-128
19Tennessee Volunteers4-127
21Notre Dame Fighting Irish5-29
22LSU Tigers4-216
23Kansas Jayhawks5-137
24Kentucky Wildcats5-142
25Miami Hurricanes4-126
Largest disagreements (AP teams):
  • Kentucky Wildcats — model #42 vs AP #24 (Δ +18; model lower)
  • UCLA Bruins — model #33 vs AP #18 (Δ +15; model lower)
  • Kansas Jayhawks — model #37 vs AP #23 (Δ +14; model lower)
  • Georgia Bulldogs — model #14 vs AP #1 (Δ +13; model lower)
  • Notre Dame Fighting Irish — model #9 vs AP #21 (Δ -12; model higher)

Week 8

Model #1 Michigan Wolverines AP #1 Georgia Bulldogs #1 differ 540 games through this point

Model Top 25

RkTeamRecScoreAP
1Michigan Wolverines8-087.432
2Florida State Seminoles7-086.044
3Ohio State Buckeyes7-086.013
4Texas Longhorns6-184.738
5Oklahoma Sooners7-084.446
6Alabama Crimson Tide7-182.311
7Washington Huskies7-080.365
8Oregon State Beavers6-177.4312
9Ole Miss Rebels6-175.1613
10Penn State Nittany Lions6-173.647
11Utah Utes6-173.0514
12James Madison Dukes7-072.78—
13Louisville Cardinals6-172.5121
14Notre Dame Fighting Irish6-271.9915
15LSU Tigers6-271.5219
16Missouri Tigers7-171.3520
17Oregon Ducks6-171.289
18North Carolina Tar Heels6-171.2610
19Georgia Bulldogs7-068.71
20Liberty Flames7-068.32—
21Iowa Hawkeyes6-267.4224
22USC Trojans6-265.9318
23UCLA Bruins5-265.5125
24Oklahoma State Cowboys5-265.17—
25Kansas State Wildcats5-264.84—

AP Top 25

RkTeamRecModel
1Georgia Bulldogs7-019
2Michigan Wolverines7-01
3Ohio State Buckeyes6-03
4Florida State Seminoles6-02
5Washington Huskies6-07
6Oklahoma Sooners6-05
7Penn State Nittany Lions6-010
8Texas Longhorns5-14
9Oregon Ducks5-117
10North Carolina Tar Heels6-018
11Alabama Crimson Tide6-16
12Oregon State Beavers6-18
13Ole Miss Rebels5-19
14Utah Utes5-111
15Notre Dame Fighting Irish6-214
16Duke Blue Devils5-129
17Tennessee Volunteers5-130
18USC Trojans6-122
19LSU Tigers5-215
20Missouri Tigers6-116
21Louisville Cardinals6-113
22Air Force Falcons6-028
23Tulane Green Wave5-133
24Iowa Hawkeyes6-121
25UCLA Bruins4-223
Largest disagreements (AP teams):
  • Georgia Bulldogs — model #19 vs AP #1 (Δ +18; model lower)
  • Duke Blue Devils — model #29 vs AP #16 (Δ +13; model lower)
  • Tennessee Volunteers — model #30 vs AP #17 (Δ +13; model lower)
  • Tulane Green Wave — model #33 vs AP #23 (Δ +10; model lower)
  • Oregon Ducks — model #17 vs AP #9 (Δ +8; model lower)

Week 9

Model #1 Ohio State Buckeyes AP #1 Georgia Bulldogs #1 differ 594 games through this point

Model Top 25

RkTeamRecScoreAP
1Ohio State Buckeyes8-087.643
2Florida State Seminoles8-085.194
3Texas Longhorns7-185.137
4Michigan Wolverines8-083.262
5Washington Huskies8-083.25
6Alabama Crimson Tide7-180.739
7Oklahoma Sooners7-178.866
8Louisville Cardinals7-176.9118
9Oregon Ducks7-176.778
10Ole Miss Rebels7-174.2412
11Notre Dame Fighting Irish7-273.6314
12Oregon State Beavers6-273.3711
13Oklahoma State Cowboys6-272.82—
14Penn State Nittany Lions7-172.6910
15James Madison Dukes8-072.1825
16Utah Utes6-271.4113
17Georgia Bulldogs8-071.31
18Liberty Flames8-069.83—
19LSU Tigers6-269.7515
20Missouri Tigers7-169.5716
21USC Trojans7-268.6424
22North Carolina Tar Heels6-268.5517
23Iowa Hawkeyes6-266.33—
24Kansas State Wildcats6-265.74—
25Arizona Wildcats5-365.09—

AP Top 25

RkTeamRecModel
1Georgia Bulldogs7-017
2Michigan Wolverines8-04
3Ohio State Buckeyes7-01
4Florida State Seminoles7-02
5Washington Huskies7-05
6Oklahoma Sooners7-07
7Texas Longhorns6-13
8Oregon Ducks6-19
9Alabama Crimson Tide7-16
10Penn State Nittany Lions6-114
11Oregon State Beavers6-112
12Ole Miss Rebels6-110
13Utah Utes6-116
14Notre Dame Fighting Irish6-211
15LSU Tigers6-219
16Missouri Tigers7-120
17North Carolina Tar Heels6-122
18Louisville Cardinals6-18
19Air Force Falcons7-027
20Duke Blue Devils5-236
21Tennessee Volunteers5-226
22Tulane Green Wave6-135
23UCLA Bruins5-229
24USC Trojans6-221
25James Madison Dukes7-015
Largest disagreements (AP teams):
  • Georgia Bulldogs — model #17 vs AP #1 (Δ +16; model lower)
  • Duke Blue Devils — model #36 vs AP #20 (Δ +16; model lower)
  • Tulane Green Wave — model #35 vs AP #22 (Δ +13; model lower)
  • Louisville Cardinals — model #8 vs AP #18 (Δ -10; model higher)
  • James Madison Dukes — model #15 vs AP #25 (Δ -10; model higher)

Week 10

Model #1 Texas Longhorns AP #1 Georgia Bulldogs #1 differ 659 games through this point

Model Top 25

RkTeamRecScoreAP
1Texas Longhorns8-188.937
2Ohio State Buckeyes9-087.983
3Florida State Seminoles9-086.94
4Washington Huskies9-084.325
5Alabama Crimson Tide8-183.668
6Michigan Wolverines9-080.742
7Oklahoma State Cowboys7-278.73—
8Louisville Cardinals8-177.7415
9Georgia Bulldogs9-076.391
10Oregon Ducks8-175.946
11Penn State Nittany Lions8-175.879
12Ole Miss Rebels8-175.1411
13James Madison Dukes9-074.3623
14Oklahoma Sooners7-272.6510
15Notre Dame Fighting Irish7-370.6512
16Oregon State Beavers7-269.8316
17Liberty Flames9-068.66—
18LSU Tigers6-368.4113
19Utah Utes7-268.3118
20Kansas Jayhawks7-268.0822
21Missouri Tigers7-267.8314
22Kansas State Wildcats6-367.6325
23Arizona Wildcats6-366.81—
24Tennessee Volunteers7-265.2119
25USC Trojans7-365.1124

AP Top 25

RkTeamRecModel
1Georgia Bulldogs8-09
2Michigan Wolverines8-06
3Ohio State Buckeyes8-02
4Florida State Seminoles8-03
5Washington Huskies8-04
6Oregon Ducks7-110
7Texas Longhorns7-11
8Alabama Crimson Tide7-15
9Penn State Nittany Lions7-111
10Oklahoma Sooners7-114
11Ole Miss Rebels7-112
12Notre Dame Fighting Irish7-215
13LSU Tigers6-218
14Missouri Tigers7-121
15Louisville Cardinals7-18
16Oregon State Beavers6-216
17Air Force Falcons8-038
18Utah Utes6-219
19Tennessee Volunteers6-224
20UCLA Bruins6-236
21Tulane Green Wave7-132
22Kansas Jayhawks6-220
23James Madison Dukes8-013
24USC Trojans7-225
25Kansas State Wildcats6-222
Largest disagreements (AP teams):
  • Air Force Falcons — model #38 vs AP #17 (Δ +21; model lower)
  • UCLA Bruins — model #36 vs AP #20 (Δ +16; model lower)
  • Tulane Green Wave — model #32 vs AP #21 (Δ +11; model lower)
  • James Madison Dukes — model #13 vs AP #23 (Δ -10; model higher)
  • Georgia Bulldogs — model #9 vs AP #1 (Δ +8; model lower)

Week 11

Model #1 Texas Longhorns AP #1 Georgia Bulldogs #1 differ 724 games through this point

Model Top 25

RkTeamRecScoreAP
1Texas Longhorns9-187.897
2Washington Huskies10-087.065
3Florida State Seminoles10-086.474
4Michigan Wolverines10-085.462
5Ohio State Buckeyes10-084.213
6Alabama Crimson Tide9-183.148
7Georgia Bulldogs10-082.511
8Oregon Ducks9-179.06
9Oklahoma Sooners8-278.0917
10Louisville Cardinals9-175.811
11Oklahoma State Cowboys7-374.9815
12Penn State Nittany Lions8-273.719
13James Madison Dukes10-073.0721
14Ole Miss Rebels8-272.5710
15Missouri Tigers8-272.0616
16Liberty Flames10-069.3225
17Oregon State Beavers8-269.1812
18Notre Dame Fighting Irish7-368.9822
19LSU Tigers7-368.1218
20Kansas State Wildcats7-367.69—
21North Carolina Tar Heels8-267.2224
22Arizona Wildcats7-366.7323
23Utah Utes7-366.2913
24Kansas Jayhawks7-365.7619
25Iowa Hawkeyes8-265.54—

AP Top 25

RkTeamRecModel
1Georgia Bulldogs9-07
2Michigan Wolverines9-04
3Ohio State Buckeyes9-05
4Florida State Seminoles9-03
5Washington Huskies9-02
6Oregon Ducks8-18
7Texas Longhorns8-11
8Alabama Crimson Tide8-16
9Penn State Nittany Lions8-112
10Ole Miss Rebels8-114
11Louisville Cardinals8-110
12Oregon State Beavers7-217
13Utah Utes7-223
14Tennessee Volunteers7-229
15Oklahoma State Cowboys7-211
16Missouri Tigers7-215
17Oklahoma Sooners7-29
18LSU Tigers6-319
19Kansas Jayhawks7-224
20Tulane Green Wave8-134
21James Madison Dukes9-013
22Notre Dame Fighting Irish7-318
23Arizona Wildcats6-322
24North Carolina Tar Heels7-221
25Liberty Flames9-016
Largest disagreements (AP teams):
  • Tennessee Volunteers — model #29 vs AP #14 (Δ +15; model lower)
  • Tulane Green Wave — model #34 vs AP #20 (Δ +14; model lower)
  • Utah Utes — model #23 vs AP #13 (Δ +10; model lower)
  • Liberty Flames — model #16 vs AP #25 (Δ -9; model higher)
  • Oklahoma Sooners — model #9 vs AP #17 (Δ -8; model higher)

Week 12

Model #1 Texas Longhorns AP #1 Georgia Bulldogs #1 differ 792 games through this point

Model Top 25

RkTeamRecScoreAP
1Texas Longhorns10-188.487
2Washington Huskies11-088.05
3Georgia Bulldogs11-084.881
4Michigan Wolverines11-084.472
5Florida State Seminoles11-083.994
6Ohio State Buckeyes11-083.353
7Alabama Crimson Tide10-181.128
8Oregon Ducks10-178.746
9Oklahoma Sooners9-278.4814
10Louisville Cardinals10-178.39
11Oklahoma State Cowboys8-374.0424
12Penn State Nittany Lions9-273.5312
13Ole Miss Rebels9-272.3613
14Arizona Wildcats8-371.6719
15Missouri Tigers9-271.2911
16Kansas State Wildcats8-371.0123
17James Madison Dukes10-169.8518
18LSU Tigers8-369.515
19Liberty Flames11-069.4625
20Notre Dame Fighting Irish8-368.820
21Oregon State Beavers8-367.4910
22Clemson Tigers7-466.44—
23NC State Wolfpack8-365.75—
24North Carolina Tar Heels8-364.722
25Iowa Hawkeyes9-264.52—

AP Top 25

RkTeamRecModel
1Georgia Bulldogs10-03
2Michigan Wolverines10-04
3Ohio State Buckeyes10-06
4Florida State Seminoles10-05
5Washington Huskies10-02
6Oregon Ducks9-18
7Texas Longhorns9-11
8Alabama Crimson Tide9-17
9Louisville Cardinals9-110
10Oregon State Beavers8-221
11Missouri Tigers8-215
12Penn State Nittany Lions8-212
13Ole Miss Rebels8-213
14Oklahoma Sooners8-29
15LSU Tigers7-318
16Utah Utes7-326
17Tulane Green Wave9-134
18James Madison Dukes10-017
19Arizona Wildcats7-314
20Notre Dame Fighting Irish7-320
21Tennessee Volunteers7-329
22North Carolina Tar Heels8-224
23Kansas State Wildcats7-316
24Oklahoma State Cowboys7-311
25Liberty Flames10-019
Largest disagreements (AP teams):
  • Tulane Green Wave — model #34 vs AP #17 (Δ +17; model lower)
  • Oklahoma State Cowboys — model #11 vs AP #24 (Δ -13; model higher)
  • Oregon State Beavers — model #21 vs AP #10 (Δ +11; model lower)
  • Utah Utes — model #26 vs AP #16 (Δ +10; model lower)
  • Tennessee Volunteers — model #29 vs AP #21 (Δ +8; model lower)

Week 13

Model #1 Texas Longhorns AP #1 Georgia Bulldogs #1 differ 857 games through this point

Model Top 25

RkTeamRecScoreAP
1Texas Longhorns11-188.427
2Michigan Wolverines12-088.33
3Washington Huskies12-087.754
4Georgia Bulldogs12-085.871
5Florida State Seminoles12-083.865
6Alabama Crimson Tide11-181.668
7Ohio State Buckeyes11-181.332
8Oregon Ducks11-179.946
9Oklahoma Sooners10-279.1713
10Louisville Cardinals10-275.739
11Penn State Nittany Lions10-273.9211
12Oklahoma State Cowboys9-373.4121
13Ole Miss Rebels10-273.1812
14Missouri Tigers10-272.3610
15James Madison Dukes11-171.4924
16LSU Tigers9-370.4814
17Arizona Wildcats9-370.1116
18Liberty Flames12-069.4722
19Notre Dame Fighting Irish9-369.4317
20NC State Wolfpack9-369.06—
21Kansas State Wildcats8-468.9419
22Iowa Hawkeyes10-266.6120
23Oregon State Beavers8-465.8815
24North Carolina Tar Heels8-465.51—
25Clemson Tigers8-464.63—

AP Top 25

RkTeamRecModel
1Georgia Bulldogs11-04
2Ohio State Buckeyes11-07
3Michigan Wolverines11-02
4Washington Huskies11-03
5Florida State Seminoles11-05
6Oregon Ducks10-18
7Texas Longhorns10-11
8Alabama Crimson Tide10-16
9Louisville Cardinals10-110
10Missouri Tigers9-214
11Penn State Nittany Lions9-211
12Ole Miss Rebels9-213
13Oklahoma Sooners9-29
14LSU Tigers8-316
15Oregon State Beavers8-323
16Arizona Wildcats8-317
17Notre Dame Fighting Irish8-319
18Tulane Green Wave10-132
19Kansas State Wildcats8-321
20Iowa Hawkeyes9-222
21Oklahoma State Cowboys8-312
22Liberty Flames11-018
23Toledo Rockets10-127
24James Madison Dukes10-115
25Tennessee Volunteers7-429
Largest disagreements (AP teams):
  • Tulane Green Wave — model #32 vs AP #18 (Δ +14; model lower)
  • Oklahoma State Cowboys — model #12 vs AP #21 (Δ -9; model higher)
  • James Madison Dukes — model #15 vs AP #24 (Δ -9; model higher)
  • Oregon State Beavers — model #23 vs AP #15 (Δ +8; model lower)
  • Texas Longhorns — model #1 vs AP #7 (Δ -6; model higher)

Week 14

Model #1 Texas Longhorns AP #1 Georgia Bulldogs #1 differ 867 games through this point

Model Top 25

RkTeamRecScoreAP
1Texas Longhorns12-192.627
2Washington Huskies13-091.213
3Michigan Wolverines13-089.492
4Alabama Crimson Tide12-187.638
5Florida State Seminoles13-087.374
6Georgia Bulldogs12-182.51
7Ohio State Buckeyes11-180.136
8Oregon Ducks11-279.065
9Oklahoma Sooners10-278.3612
10Louisville Cardinals10-373.9815
11Ole Miss Rebels10-272.0211
12Liberty Flames13-071.7120
13Missouri Tigers10-271.699
14Penn State Nittany Lions10-271.6510
15James Madison Dukes11-171.5124
16Oklahoma State Cowboys9-471.2519
17Arizona Wildcats9-369.7714
18LSU Tigers9-369.7313
19Kansas State Wildcats8-469.55—
20NC State Wolfpack9-368.1221
21Notre Dame Fighting Irish9-368.0216
22Oregon State Beavers8-465.5921
23SMU Mustangs11-265.0625
24Iowa Hawkeyes10-364.9418
25Clemson Tigers8-464.0—

AP Top 25

RkTeamRecModel
1Georgia Bulldogs12-06
2Michigan Wolverines12-03
3Washington Huskies12-02
4Florida State Seminoles12-05
5Oregon Ducks11-18
6Ohio State Buckeyes11-17
7Texas Longhorns11-11
8Alabama Crimson Tide11-14
9Missouri Tigers10-213
10Penn State Nittany Lions10-214
11Ole Miss Rebels10-211
12Oklahoma Sooners10-29
13LSU Tigers9-318
14Arizona Wildcats9-317
15Louisville Cardinals10-210
16Notre Dame Fighting Irish9-321
17Tulane Green Wave11-136
18Iowa Hawkeyes10-224
19Oklahoma State Cowboys9-316
20Liberty Flames12-012
21NC State Wolfpack9-320
21Oregon State Beavers8-422
23Toledo Rockets11-132
24James Madison Dukes11-115
25SMU Mustangs10-223
Largest disagreements (AP teams):
  • Tulane Green Wave — model #36 vs AP #17 (Δ +19; model lower)
  • Toledo Rockets — model #32 vs AP #23 (Δ +9; model lower)
  • James Madison Dukes — model #15 vs AP #24 (Δ -9; model higher)
  • Liberty Flames — model #12 vs AP #20 (Δ -8; model higher)
  • Texas Longhorns — model #1 vs AP #7 (Δ -6; model higher)

Week 15

Model #1 Texas Longhorns AP #1 Michigan Wolverines #1 differ 868 games through this point

Model Top 25

RkTeamRecScoreAP
1Texas Longhorns12-192.563
2Washington Huskies13-091.172
3Michigan Wolverines13-089.471
4Alabama Crimson Tide12-187.615
5Florida State Seminoles13-087.464
6Georgia Bulldogs12-182.476
7Ohio State Buckeyes11-180.127
8Oregon Ducks11-279.028
9Oklahoma Sooners10-278.3112
10Louisville Cardinals10-374.0516
11Ole Miss Rebels10-271.9911
12Liberty Flames13-071.7218
13Penn State Nittany Lions10-271.6410
14Missouri Tigers10-271.629
15James Madison Dukes11-171.5824
16Oklahoma State Cowboys9-471.1822
17LSU Tigers9-370.013
18Arizona Wildcats9-369.7414
19Kansas State Wildcats8-469.56—
20NC State Wolfpack9-368.1619
21Notre Dame Fighting Irish9-368.0515
22Oregon State Beavers8-465.5621
23SMU Mustangs11-264.9717
24Iowa Hawkeyes10-364.9220
25Troy Trojans11-264.0—

AP Top 25

RkTeamRecModel
1Michigan Wolverines13-03
2Washington Huskies13-02
3Texas Longhorns12-11
4Florida State Seminoles13-05
5Alabama Crimson Tide12-14
6Georgia Bulldogs12-16
7Ohio State Buckeyes11-17
8Oregon Ducks11-28
9Missouri Tigers10-214
10Penn State Nittany Lions10-213
11Ole Miss Rebels10-211
12Oklahoma Sooners10-29
13LSU Tigers9-317
14Arizona Wildcats9-318
15Notre Dame Fighting Irish9-321
16Louisville Cardinals10-310
17SMU Mustangs11-223
18Liberty Flames13-012
19NC State Wolfpack9-320
20Iowa Hawkeyes10-324
21Oregon State Beavers8-422
22Oklahoma State Cowboys9-416
23Tulane Green Wave11-236
24James Madison Dukes11-115
25Tennessee Volunteers8-430
Largest disagreements (AP teams):
  • Tulane Green Wave — model #36 vs AP #23 (Δ +13; model lower)
  • James Madison Dukes — model #15 vs AP #24 (Δ -9; model higher)
  • Notre Dame Fighting Irish — model #21 vs AP #15 (Δ +6; model lower)
  • Louisville Cardinals — model #10 vs AP #16 (Δ -6; model higher)
  • SMU Mustangs — model #23 vs AP #17 (Δ +6; model lower)

Final (postseason)

Model #1 Michigan Wolverines AP #1 Michigan Wolverines #1 match 911 games through this point

Model Top 25

RkTeamRecScoreAP
1Michigan Wolverines15-099.661
2Washington Huskies14-192.592
3Georgia Bulldogs13-190.254
4Texas Longhorns12-288.033
5Alabama Crimson Tide12-284.695
6Oregon Ducks12-281.316
7Florida State Seminoles13-180.36
8Missouri Tigers11-278.718
9Ohio State Buckeyes11-277.510
10Ole Miss Rebels11-276.829
11Louisville Cardinals10-473.419
12Oklahoma State Cowboys10-472.7816
13Arizona Wildcats10-371.9511
14Oklahoma Sooners10-371.2315
15Kansas State Wildcats9-471.1718
16LSU Tigers10-369.9212
17Notre Dame Fighting Irish10-369.3514
18James Madison Dukes11-268.42—
19Penn State Nittany Lions10-368.2513
20Duke Blue Devils8-567.55—
21NC State Wolfpack9-466.321
22Liberty Flames13-166.125
23Tennessee Volunteers9-465.3217
24Oregon State Beavers8-564.63—
25SMU Mustangs11-363.8722

AP Top 25

RkTeamRecModel
1Michigan Wolverines15-01
2Washington Huskies14-12
3Texas Longhorns12-24
4Georgia Bulldogs13-13
5Alabama Crimson Tide12-25
6Florida State Seminoles13-17
6Oregon Ducks12-26
8Missouri Tigers11-28
9Ole Miss Rebels11-210
10Ohio State Buckeyes11-29
11Arizona Wildcats10-313
12LSU Tigers10-316
13Penn State Nittany Lions10-319
14Notre Dame Fighting Irish10-317
15Oklahoma Sooners10-314
16Oklahoma State Cowboys10-412
17Tennessee Volunteers9-423
18Kansas State Wildcats9-415
19Louisville Cardinals10-411
20Clemson Tigers9-428
21NC State Wolfpack9-421
22SMU Mustangs11-325
23Kansas Jayhawks9-427
24Iowa Hawkeyes10-429
25Liberty Flames13-122
Largest disagreements (AP teams):
  • Louisville Cardinals — model #11 vs AP #19 (Δ -8; model higher)
  • Clemson Tigers — model #28 vs AP #20 (Δ +8; model lower)
  • Penn State Nittany Lions — model #19 vs AP #13 (Δ +6; model lower)
  • Tennessee Volunteers — model #23 vs AP #17 (Δ +6; model lower)
  • Iowa Hawkeyes — model #29 vs AP #24 (Δ +5; model lower)